Zero wins, Big factor: How Owaisi factor catalyzed the Delhi assembly election?

Delhi: Despite failing to win a single seat, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM emerged as a crucial factor in the Delhi Assembly elections, affecting vote shares in key constituencies. The division of minority votes in Okhla and Mustafabad paved the way for BJP’s victory, highlighting AIMIM’s indirect impact on the election outcome.  

AIMIM’s presence and vote split in key seats

AIMIM contested two seats in Delhi:  
1. Okhla– Shifa Ur Rehman Khan  
2. Mustafabad –Tahir Hussain  

Both candidates, currently in jail due to alleged links to the 2020 Delhi riots, finished third in their respective constituencies. Their entry led to a vote split among minority voters, impacting AAP and Congress’s performance.  

Okhla: AIMIM’s impact shrinks AAP’s margin  

• AAP’s Amanatullah Khan won, securing his fourth term, but his victory margin dropped significantly.  
• BJP’s Manish Chaudhary finished second, while AIMIM’s Shifa Ur Rehman Khan secured 39,558 votes, pushing Congress’s Ariba Khan to fourth place.  
•  Had the AIMIM votes consolidated behind AAP, the margin could have been much higher.  

Mustafabad: AAP vs. BJP vs. AIMIM 

• BJP’s Mohan Singh Bisht won by 17,578 votes, defeating AAP’s Adeel Ahmed Khan.  
• AIMIM’s Tahir Hussain got 33,474 votes, while Congress’s Ali Mehdi received just 11,763 votes.  
•  With a 40% Muslim population, the vote split between AAP, AIMIM, and Congress worked in BJP’s favor.  

AIMIM’s bail boost and Owaisi’s roadshows  

Before the elections, both AIMIM candidates were granted interim bail to campaign. Owaisi himself held roadshows, amplifying AIMIM’s presence. Though the party couldn’t secure a win, its ability to disrupt traditional voting patterns was evident.  

BJP’s internal strategy pays Off 

Mustafabad’s election also had an internal BJP power play:  

• Mohan Singh Bisht, a veteran BJP leader, was initially sidelined for Kapil Mishra, who switched from AAP.  
• To compensate, BJP fielded Bisht in Mustafabad, where he delivered a crucial victory.  
• This move secured a BJP stronghold while ensuring internal stability.