Can AAP defy exit polls? BJP confident of sweeping Delhi after decades

Delhi: The fate of 698 candidates in Delhi’s high-stakes assembly elections will be determined as vote counting begins at 8 AM on Saturday. With 9.5 million votes cast across 13,766 polling booths, the first major electoral contest of 2025 is set for a dramatic conclusion. The counting process will take place at 19 designated centers across the national capital under tight security. “We have made robust security arrangements [for counting day]. Only authorized personnel will be allowed inside the counting centers, where the use of mobile phones will be strictly prohibited,” said Special Commissioner of Police Devesh Chandra Srivastva. Around 5,000 security personnel have been deployed to ensure fair counting.

Exit polls predict BJP’s big comeback

Almost every exit poll has predicted a major win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), breaking the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) stronghold after 27 years. Forecasts suggest a dramatic shift in voter preference, with a significant decline in AAP’s support. In 2020, AAP secured 62 seats with 53.5% vote share, while BJP managed only eight seats with 38.5% votes. On the other hand, Congress failed to win any seat, garnering just 5% of votes.

All but two exit polls predict the BJP either securing a clear majority in the 70-member assembly or coming close. Meanwhile, three surveys indicate BJP will make a strong comeback, dismantling AAP’s control over key constituencies.

BJP Rides on momentum from 2024 general elections

If the exit poll numbers hold, the BJP’s victory in Delhi will extend its dominance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where it swept all seven parliamentary seats in the capital. It would also mark a crucial turnaround after two consecutive assembly election defeats.

“People want change and a corruption-free government. ‘AAPda’ is going, and the BJP is coming to power in Delhi. On February 8, our victory will be more spectacular than what exit polls have shown,” said Delhi BJP chief Virendra Sachdeva.

AAP faces existential crisis amid corruption charges

For AAP, a loss would signal a major crisis. Once a political powerhouse born from the anti-corruption movement of 2011, the party now struggles with corruption allegations, particularly against its leader and former Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. A defeat would leave AAP with control only over Punjab, limiting its national ambitions.

Despite exit polls heavily favoring BJP, AAP remains hopeful. “Under Kejriwal’s guidance, all candidates presented their ground reports, which indicated that AAP is set to win over 50 seats decisively with a close contest in seven-eight seats,” said senior AAP leader Gopal Rai.

Key voting factors and Delhi’s political landscape

The 2025 Delhi elections have been shaped by class and gender divisions rather than communal issues. Delhi’s political landscape is unique, given its relatively small electorate but immense national influence. The past five years saw intense clashes between the elected state government and the lieutenant governor, leading to governance paralysis, worsening pollution, infrastructure collapse, and rising crime.

Demographics such as women, lower-income groups, marginalized castes, and middle-class voters played a crucial role in this election. While AAP has historically dominated among the first three groups due to its welfare policies, the middle-class remains BJP’s stronghold. Both parties aggressively courted these swing voters.

Major issues on voters’ minds include governance, corruption, civic infrastructure, and law and order. With Delhi’s governance in turmoil for the past five years, the election outcome will set the stage for the national capital’s political future.